Actualización diaria de movimientos
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 30-32: The past 72 hours has seen Ukrainian forces continue to conduct localized counterattacks in the Kyiv area, Sumy Oblast, and around Kharkiv & Izium. Russian forces continue to press in the Donbass & Mariupol.
2/ Today’s update will focus areas that have seen significant activity in the last 72 hrs, namely Kyiv, Sumy, the Donbas, Mariupol. Note, my last update erroneously placed the attack of Russian warships in the Mariupol area, this was a map error. The attack occurred in Beriansk.
3/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries reach 5 million, with 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Civilian suffering in many Ukrainian cities continue to reach new depths of inhumanity and cruelty. Although international aid increases, suffering persists.
4/ Weather assessment. Forecasted rain and wintery mix for 5 of the next 10 days will adversely affect aerospace and ground operations, potentially slowing down offensive momentum. Temperatures generally will remain between 15/-2 C.
5/ Kyiv Front. Ukrainian forces continue to press counterattacks west of Kyiv in Irpin, Bucha, Vorzel, Borodyanka, Andrivka, and Makariv. East of Kyiv Ukrainian forces have recaptured Luk’yanivka, forcing most of the Russian forces in the area to retreat.
6/ Kyiv AO. Kyiv has most likely shifted in importance from a strategic decisive point Russia seeks to seize to a political objective point Russia will contain. Maintaining pressure on Kyiv denies Uk force in the east, a front that holds greater chance for Russian success.
7/ Sumy Front. Russian forces are unable to ensure the unimpeded flow of supplies and reinforcements throughout the Sumy Oblast. There are numerous unsubstantiated reports that Russian forces may be withdrawing forces from the Sumy area. #Sumy
8/ Sumy AO. It is unknown if these reports indicate a shifting of Russian forces in response to Ukrainian counterattacks, or they constitute a move to drastically alter Russian disposition in the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts to reinforce success or create opportunity on other fronts.
9/ Donbas Front assessment. Russian forces continue to try and advance past southern Izium, but localized Ukrainian counterattacks have been able to contain them to Izium. Further west Ukrainian force have recaptured that Novovorontsovka (SE of Kryvyi Rih). #Kharkiv #Donbas
10/ Mariupol. The Russian forces continue to press deeper into Mariupol. It is possible that the city defenses may soon be bisected by Russian forces advancing from east to west. Social media reporting continues to document the intense indiscriminate targeting of Mariupol.
11/ Aerospace Assessment. Over the past 72 hrs. the UAF states it has destroyed 18 Russian air targets: 1x fighter, 12x UAVs, 5x cruise missiles. VKS continues to increase the pace and extent of its strikes throughout Ukraine to break the UAF and IADs.
12/ In this interview, UAF pilots’ detail that they have been able to retain contested control of Ukrainian airspace except in areas like Mariupol. The pilots state there is good integration between fighters and IADs, but Russia does have better equipment.
https://twitter.com/JohnBerman/status/1 ... SV-pw&s=19